Rob's Market Commentary

S&P 500

7,720.39

-23.59 (-0.30%)

1-month +0.9%

Nasdaq

26,184.72

-365.13 (-1.38%)

1-month -2.5%

Dow

52,342.56

-132.54 (-0.25%)

1-month +2.8%

Russell 2000

2,859.22

+28.71 (+1.01%)

1-month +2.2%

10-yr yield

4.989%

-0.056 (-1.11%)

1-month -5.1%

VIX

17.20

+0.29 (+1.71%)

1-month +7.2%

Dollar (DXY)

101.80

-0.24 (-0.24%)

1-month +0.3%

WTI oil

103.36

+1.36 (+1.33%)

1-month +14.3%

Gold

3,997.00

-34.40 (-0.85%)

1-month -4.5%

Bitcoin

78,585

-1.80% 24h

USD, CoinGecko

Ether

2,250

-2.78% 24h

USD, CoinGecko

Bitcoin · BTC

$78,585

-1.80%

Ether · ETH

$2,250

-2.78%

Solana · SOL

$98.19

-1.86%

Sui · SUI

$0.897

-1.78%

Near · NEAR

$4.32

-3.21%

Hyperliquid · HYPE

$93.41

+18.18%

Rates & macro

Treasuries rallied despite hot growth data: the 10-year fell 10.6bp to 4.939% and the 2-year fell 13.3bp to 4.602%, though the 10-year remains near 5%. source
Fed path: rates held at 3.75%–4% after September's first hike since 2023; two dissenters wanted another hike, and futures still lean toward a December move. source
Inflation remains the sticking point: September headline PCE ran 3.6% year over year and core 3.1%, while Q3 GDP grew at a 3.4% pace. source
Dollar: the DXY held near 102.26 after the Fed because December hike bets held up; lower Treasury yields weighed on it Thursday, while Middle East tensions gave it safe-haven support. source
Global policy divergence: the ECB held at 2.5% and hinted at a December hike, and the BOJ held but raised its inflation forecast, pointing to tightening outside the U.S. that could pressure the dollar. source

AI-compute tracker

Nvidia closed down 0.80% at $213.66 (about $5.15T market cap), holding up better than the Nasdaq; no Nvidia-specific catalyst was reported during the session. source
TSMC fell 1.75% to $431.81 with the chip group; its Q3 revenue rose 41.2% to $46.72B and it guided Q4 to $52.3B–$54.3B on a steep 2-nanometer ramp. source
Hyperscaler capex: Microsoft, Amazon and Meta are projected to spend well over $700B in 2026. Alphabet and Microsoft held their forecasts, Meta guides $135B–$145B and Amazon about $220B. source
Capacity bottleneck: Microsoft cited GPU delivery delays at third-party providers (it relies on CoreWeave, IREN and Nebius) pushing capacity into 1H 2027, as Azure grew 48%. CoreWeave fell about 5% and Nebius 5.7% Thursday. source
Financing the build: Microsoft's bond sale and Meta's stock issuance show AI capex increasingly being funded with debt and equity as free cash flow turns negative at several hyperscalers. source

What moved markets

Alphabet fell about 12.6%, a historic one-day drop, after its report showed negative free cash flow and a search revenue miss. The selloff spread to chips and software: ServiceNow fell 27%, Fortinet 20% and Marvell 13%, while Caterpillar lost 9% on a forecast that disappointed. source
The Alphabet hit was about cash, not just search: operating cash flow of $42.3 billion against $51.4 billion of capex left free cash flow at negative $9.1 billion for the quarter, and the stock erased roughly $500 billion of market value on the day. source
AI-spending jitters broadened: Alphabet and Microsoft held their capex forecasts while Microsoft's CFO flagged third-party GPU capacity delays into the first half of 2027. Meta (capex guide $135B–$145B) and Alphabet both reported negative free cash flow, and hyperscaler capex is expected to top $1 trillion next year. source
Chips snapped a four-day winning streak as investors separated AI spenders that can fund their plans from those burning cash or borrowing: Micron fell 4.98%, AMD 2.08%, Broadcom 1.94%, TSMC 1.75% and Nvidia 0.80%, while ASML gained 0.77%. source
Under the surface the typical stock rallied: 406 of 501 S&P 500 tickers rose and the median stock gained 1.47%, while the cap-weighted index fell because of its largest names. Consumer cyclicals led (median +2.76%) and technology lagged. Eight of 11 sectors finished higher, led by health care (+2.5%) and real estate (+2.25%), while communication services fell 6.6%. source
Earnings dispersion was extreme: Xerox closed about 40% lower after cutting forecasts, Eli Lilly rose about 6.4% after raising guidance, Caterpillar fell despite beating estimates, and DoorDash closed 5.61% higher after agreeing to acquire Instacart, mostly in cash. source
The economy grew at a 3.4% annual pace in the third quarter, faster than the roughly 3.1% to 3.2% expected and up from 2.2% in the second quarter. September PCE inflation rose 0.5% on the month to 3.6% a year, and core PCE rose 0.3% to 3.1%, both in line with forecasts. source
Treasuries rallied on safe-haven buying despite the hot growth data: the 10-year yield fell 10.6 basis points to 4.939% and the 2-year fell 13.3 basis points to 4.602%. Oil eased on reports of renewed Iran peace efforts, with WTI settling at $102.00 and Brent at $114.88. source
Fed backdrop: a day after the FOMC held at 3.75%–4% in a 10–2 vote (Cook and Hammack wanted a hike, following September's increase), Chair Kevin Warsh gave no clear December steer; CME FedWatch still implied about a 78% chance of at least one more hike by December. source

After hours & earnings

Amazon slid about 6% to 7% after third-quarter results missed on both lines: EPS of $1.89 versus $1.96 expected on revenue of $201.94 billion versus $202.31 billion. It reaffirmed full-year capital spending of about $220 billion. source
Intel tumbled about 21% to 23% as its current-quarter outlook of $15 billion to $16 billion in revenue and 25 cents of adjusted EPS fell well short of the $17.1 billion and 43 cents analysts expected, overshadowing a third-quarter beat. source
Weak guidance hit several growth names: Reddit fell 18%, Roblox 17%, Twilio 17%, Stryker 12% on a full-year guidance cut, and Pinterest 8% after missing on both lines. source
Rivian gained about 5% after beating third-quarter expectations as its R2 SUV ramped, Sandisk slipped about 3% despite a beat and an eight-for-one stock split, and Starbucks dipped about 2% on mixed results. source
Amazon context: it reported just over $53 billion of quarterly cash capex and keeps about $220 billion planned for 2026; analysts had expected a roughly $9.9 billion free-cash-flow outflow this quarter, and StreetAccount sees 2027 capex above $280 billion. source
Nvidia after the bell: reports covered Jensen Huang's comments on a Singapore customer under U.S. investigation and Justice Department questions about its Hugging Face deal. source

Earnings & big events

Amazon's double miss is the overnight swing factor for mega-caps: with Alphabet, Meta and now Amazon all showing capex outrunning cash generation, free cash flow is becoming the headline metric for AI spenders. source
Intel's weak guide (Q4 revenue $15B–$16B vs $17.1B expected, EPS 25c vs 43c) puts semis back in focus Friday after the group already broke a four-day winning streak. source
Bank of Japan (Fri, Tokyo): held rates steady but revised up its inflation forecast and stressed readiness to keep raising rates; markets had priced about an 83% chance of a hike at the Dec. 18 meeting. source
Friday premarket: ExxonMobil, Chevron and AbbVie report, with oil above $100 and Iran peace mediation in the headlines. source
Next week's heavyweights: Apple and Palantir (Mon after close), AMD, Shopify, Pfizer and Arista (Tue), and Airbnb, Cloudflare and The Trade Desk (Thu after close). source
Geopolitics into the Nov. 3 U.S. election: the dollar has safe-haven support on Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and speculation about a possible U.S. strike on Iran, while mediators pursue a temporary peace deal. source

Sector performance

SPDR sector ETFs, day change at close.

Top movers (S&P 500)

Gainers

GEN Gen Digital	+15.81%
CVNA Carvana	+15.68%
NCLH Norwegian Cruise Line	+13.45%
HII Huntington Ingalls Industries	+13.23%
BLDR Builders FirstSource	+12.85%

Decliners

NOW ServiceNow	-26.95%
FTNT Fortinet	-20.09%
MRVL Marvell Technology	-13.24%
GOOGL Alphabet	-12.64%
HONA Honeywell Aerospace	-9.60%

Thursday 10/29 regular session (S&P 500 members, closing prices). source

Top movers (Nasdaq)

Gainers

NXPI NXP Semiconductors	+5.69%
DASH DoorDash	+5.61%
KLAC KLA	+5.45%
FER Ferrovial	+4.38%
GILD Gilead Sciences	+4.03%

Decliners

ALNY Alnylam Pharmaceuticals	-25.13%
FTNT Fortinet	-20.09%
MRVL Marvell Technology	-13.24%
GOOGL Alphabet	-12.64%
NBIS Nebius	-5.68%

Nasdaq-100 members, Thursday 10/29 regular-session close (Alphabet Class C excluded as duplicate). source

Economic calendar

Fri 10/30		Bank of Japan decision (held; inflation forecast raised); euro-area GDP flash
Mon 11/2		ISM Manufacturing
Tue 11/3		JOLTS job openings; U.S. election day
Wed 11/4		ISM Services
Fri 11/6	8:30a ET	October jobs report
Fri 12/18		Next BOJ meeting (~83% hike odds priced)

source

Earnings calendar

Fri 10/30	ExxonMobil, Chevron, AbbVie, AstraZeneca, Regeneron (am)
Mon 11/2	Apple, Palantir, Vertex (pm)
Tue 11/3	Pfizer, Shopify, Keurig Dr Pepper (am); AMD, Amgen, Arista, Booking, Block, Upstart (pm)
Thu 11/5	ConocoPhillips, Unity, Viatris (am); Airbnb, Cloudflare, The Trade Desk, SoundHound (pm)

am = before open, pm = after close. source

Global & overnight

Europe rallied: the STOXX 600 rose 0.77% to 649.11, its highest since Sept. 8, after the ECB held its key rate at 2.5% and hinted at a December hike. ECB President Christine Lagarde confirmed she will step down early in February. Shell hit a record high on its best quarterly profit since 2022, and Germany's DAX gained 1.31% to 26,039.68. source
Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 1.10% to 64,659.47 for a third straight gain, lifted by Advantest's raised outlook, and the TOPIX added 0.29%. source
South Korea's KOSPI fell 1.24% to 5,937.66 as Samsung Electronics dropped 4.13% despite record quarterly operating profit, after it gave no new detail on shareholder returns. source

Crypto

Bitcoin (BTC)

$78,585

-1.80% 24h

$78,552, down 1.8% in 24h. Slipped below $80,000 as tech weakness hit risk assets, with about $356M of longs liquidated; Strategy's Michael Saylor called a new bull run after a record quarter. source

Ether (ETH)

$2,250

-2.78% 24h

$2,247.89, down 2.8% in 24h, and down about 18% since early October, underperforming bitcoin. source

Solana (SOL)

$98.19

-1.86% 24h

$98.20, down 1.8% in 24h, back under $100 and about 20% lower since Oct. 5. source

Sui (SUI)

$0.90

-1.78% 24h

$0.897, down 1.7% in 24h; down roughly 29% since early October, among the weakest large caps this month. source

Near (NEAR)

$4.32

-3.21% 24h

$4.31, down 3.5% in 24h, after retreating from its October peak near $6 and testing support around $4.08. source

Hyperliquid (HYPE)

$93.41

+18.18% 24h

$93.27, up 17.9% in 24h, after ICE (NYSE's owner) signed a deal with Trade[XYZ] to build a regulated U.S. perpetual futures market on Hyperliquid's HIP-3 infrastructure; treasury firm Hyperliquid Strategies (PURR) jumped 23%. source

24h moves from the CoinGecko public API, snapshot about 11:30 PM PT Thu 10/29.