Rates & macro

Treasuries rallied despite hot growth data: the 10-year fell 10.6bp to 4.939% and the 2-year fell 13.3bp to 4.602%, though the 10-year remains near 5%. source
Fed path: rates held at 3.75%–4% after September's first hike since 2023; two dissenters wanted another hike, and futures still lean toward a December move. source
Inflation remains the sticking point: September headline PCE ran 3.6% year over year and core 3.1%, while Q3 GDP grew at a 3.4% pace. source
Dollar: the DXY held near 102.26 after the Fed because December hike bets held up; lower Treasury yields weighed on it Thursday, while Middle East tensions gave it safe-haven support. source
Global policy divergence: the ECB held at 2.5% and hinted at a December hike, and the BOJ held but raised its inflation forecast, pointing to tightening outside the U.S. that could pressure the dollar. source

Research only, not financial advice. Built Oct 29 11:51 PM PT.