Rob's Portfolio Advisory Board

Red. A rare Alphabet miss on ads and cash burn, and a Fed that still leans toward hiking.

On Oct 28, X News reported, unverified, that Bitcoin dips below $80,000. Source: X News
On Oct 28, X News reported, unverified, that Microsoft beats with Azure up 48%. Source: X News
On Oct 28, Real Vision posted, “No hike... December is now ~85% priced for a hike..” Source: X
On Oct 28, X News reported, unverified, that Fed holds at 3.75%-4.00% in 10-2 vote. Source: X News
On Oct 28, Reuters posted: Alphabet shares fall after revenue miss, cash burn worsens. Source: Web
On Oct 28, CNBC posted: Alphabet misses, negative free cash flow of $9.07B. Source: Web
On Oct 27, X News reported, unverified, that Alphabet earnings and Fed decision doubleheader. Source: X News
On Oct 27, Reuters posted: Meta eyes record $97.5B equity raise. Source: Web
On Oct 27, X News reported, unverified, that US stocks rally on tech and chip surge. Source: X News
On Oct 27, X News reported, unverified, that S&P 500 climbs ahead of Fed decision. Source: X News
On Oct 26, X News reported, unverified, that this week brings the Fed decision and Big Tech earnings. Source: X News
On Oct 26, X News reported, unverified, that US stocks surged after Trump held off an Iran strike. Source: X News

On Oct 21, Zuckerberg said, via Meta investor relations: “Our investments are paying off, the core business is strong, and we're seeing velocity across the board.” Source
On Oct 20, Jake Dollarhide was quoted by Reuters: “This is a market relieved that rates have come down, relieved that there’s less volatility in oil prices, even though they remain elevated.” Source
On Oct 19, Real Vision posted on X: “After September’s hike, the question for the 28th isn’t cuts. It’s whether they go again.” Source
On Oct 19, Reuters said: “However, the market leaned massively on heavyweight stocks for its advance.” Source
On Oct 16, Warsh was quoted by WSJ: “I don't prejudge meetings. I don't believe in saying now what I might do at the meetings we have in the balance of this year. It's a new chapter at the Fed, and we're not in that business anymore.” Source
On Oct 14, the BLS September 2026 CPI release said: “headline 3.7% YoY / 0.6% MoM; gasoline +9.1%” Source
On Oct 8, TechCrunch and the FT relayed OpenAI's annualized revenue: “approaching $50B” Source

On Oct 28, CNBC and Reuters: Alphabet reported Q3 revenue of $127.58 billion (up 25%) against about $128.2 billion expected and adjusted EPS of $2.67 against $3.02, its first top-and-bottom-line miss in nearly four years. Free cash flow was negative $9.07 billion as capex hit $51.4 billion; Google Cloud more than doubled to $30.7 billion, but ads came in about $1.4 billion light, which executives tied partly to lower ad revenue in AI Mode. The CFO said 2027 capex will rise significantly. Shares fell more than 10% after hours.
On Oct 28, X News reported, unverified, that the Fed held its target at 3.75%-4.00% in a 10-2 vote, with Governors Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack voting for a quarter-point hike; Chair Kevin Warsh took a wait-and-see line. Real Vision posted that December is now about 85% priced for a hike.
On Oct 28, X News reported, unverified, that the S&P 500 closed at 7,743.98, up 0.28%, before the Alphabet report hit futures. Microsoft beat on revenue ($92.3 billion) with Azure up 48% and rose about 5% after hours. Bitcoin dropped below $80,000 with more than $300 million of crypto liquidations.
Rates and oil, not AI headlines, look like the real valuation pressure on long-duration mega-caps.

Overview quick notes

On Oct 28, CNBC and Reuters: Alphabet reported Q3 revenue of $127.58 billion (up 25%) against about $128.2 billion expected and adjusted EPS of $2.67 against $3.02, its first top-and-bottom-line miss in nearly four years. Free cash flow was negative $9.07 billion as capex hit $51.4 billion; Google Cloud more than doubled to $30.7 billion, but ads came in about $1.4 billion light, which executives tied partly to lower ad revenue in AI Mode. The CFO said 2027 capex will rise significantly. Shares fell more than 10% after hours.
On Oct 28, X News reported, unverified, that the Fed held its target at 3.75%-4.00% in a 10-2 vote, with Governors Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack voting for a quarter-point hike; Chair Kevin Warsh took a wait-and-see line. Real Vision posted that December is now about 85% priced for a hike.
On Oct 28, X News reported, unverified, that the S&P 500 closed at 7,743.98, up 0.28%, before the Alphabet report hit futures. Microsoft beat on revenue ($92.3 billion) with Azure up 48% and rose about 5% after hours. Bitcoin dropped below $80,000 with more than $300 million of crypto liquidations.

GOOGL open Oct 29 · AMZN/GDP/PCE Oct 29 · AAPL Nov 2 · Dec FOMC

On Oct 8, TSMC reported September revenue of NT$511.86B, down 0.6% from August and up 54.6% from a year earlier, and January through September revenue of NT$3,898.73B, up 41.1%.
On Oct 5, supply-chain estimates that TSMC has not confirmed said 2nm and 3nm capacity and CoWoS are still tight, with CoWoS at about 120–140K wafers per month by year-end.
TSMC's Q3 earnings call on Oct 15 is the next hard datapoint on AI packaging capacity feeding NVDA and the hyperscalers, plus any Terafab commentary.

Wall Street Noise Filter T2 🔴 ACTIVE