← Back to Board UpdateDeep dive · Oct 28, 2026

Macro desk T2 🟡 WATCH

Desk stance

Tom Lee: the Fed is walking back its 'ultra hawkish' September stance. ETH about $2,306 and slipping under $2,300 late. Real Vision: December now about 85% priced for a hike. Pal's book is out Nov 3. Nothing on Sui.

Tom LeeFundstrat · WatchRaoul PalReal Vision · Standby

Tom Lee T2 🟡 WATCH

Macro + Ethereum · granular, shorter-term research desk
  • Lee: the Fed “is walking back from its ‘ultra hawkish’ stance”; after the September hike “corporate bond issuance collapsed”
  • ETH ~$2,306 in tonight's snapshot (from $2,354), and fell under $2,300 after the Fed with bitcoin, according to X News.
SIGNAL
WATCH · 2/5
TICKERS / BRANDS

FUNDSTRAT, BMNR, ETH

Stance

Yellow. Upbeat read on the Fed; ETH losing support.

Signals timelinenewest first · dashed = secondary / unverified

  • On Oct 28, X News reported, unverified, that Ethereum near $2,300. Source: X News
  • On Oct 28, Tom Lee posted: on CNBC Closing Bell for FOMC day. Source: X
  • On Oct 28, Tom Lee posted: Fed walking back from 'ultra hawkish' stance. Source: X
  • On Oct 27, X News reported, unverified, that Ethereum tests $2,300 support. Source: X News
  • On Oct 27, Tom Lee posted, “Please look thru the noise..” Source: X
  • On Oct 26, X News reported, unverified, that Ethereum is testing support at $2,320. Source: X News
  • On Oct 26, Tom Lee replied, “Congrats on the common equity buyback.” Source: X
  • On Oct 26, BitMine posted its holdings update. Source: X
  • On Oct 24, Fundstrat posted, “Phase III incoming.” Source: X
  • On Oct 24, Fundstrat posted that everyone is too bearish. Source: X
  • On Oct 24, Fundstrat posted that a positive inflection point is inbound. Source: X
  • On Oct 23, Fundstrat reposted “The End of the AI sell off is here.” Source: X

Key quotes & findings

  • On Oct 22, Tom Lee posted on X: “Everyone is too bearish now” Source
  • On Oct 21, BitMine posted on X: “Crypto bull market underway. PS: just starting” Source
  • On Oct 20, Tom Lee posted on X: “Ethereum $ETH keeps winning” Source
  • On Oct 19, Lee told CNBC, as shown on Stocktwits: “I think as much as people are sort of fearful of this, I’d be sort of jumping into the AI, semiconductor, Mag Seven, software. These are AI downstream names.” Source
  • On Oct 19, Lee told CNBC, as shown on Stocktwits: “Reports from the brokerages that AI positioning by hedge funds has been almost entirely unwound.” Source
  • On Oct 16, CNBC Closing Bell said, per its transcript (secondary source): “I think the setup is for a buy on the memory, the semis, you know, the neo-clouds, you know, tech broadly, crypto. I think that they've all pulled back to support levels at a time when people have become maybe very fearful of fundamentals. But as you know, if the fundamentals remain intact, then it's a coiled spring.” Source
  • On Oct 16, A post on X said: “Fears of war escalating this coming weekend” Source
  • On Oct 14, A post on X quoting an energy-shock CPI frame said: “Makes sense” Source
  • On Oct 28, Tom Lee: 'Fed is walking back from its ultra hawkish stance from Sept,' noting bond markets fell into turmoil after the Sept 15 FOMC and corporate bond issuance collapsed, and arguing higher rates may now add to inflation. He appeared on CNBC's Closing Bell on Fed day.
  • On Oct 28, X News reported, unverified, that ETH tested $2,300 support and dropped under it late Wednesday as bitcoin fell below $80,000. Tonight's snapshot shows ETH at $2,305.94.

What to watch next

  • BitMine's next ETH holdings update is due on Monday.
  • Tesla and Meta report Q3 results on Oct 21.
  • The FOMC meets on Oct 27–28.

All sources19 links · open in a new tab · dashed = secondary / unverified

Overview quick notes
  • On Oct 28, Tom Lee: 'Fed is walking back from its ultra hawkish stance from Sept,' noting bond markets fell into turmoil after the Sept 15 FOMC and corporate bond issuance collapsed, and arguing higher rates may now add to inflation. He appeared on CNBC's Closing Bell on Fed day.
  • On Oct 28, X News reported, unverified, that ETH tested $2,300 support and dropped under it late Wednesday as bitcoin fell below $80,000. Tonight's snapshot shows ETH at $2,305.94.

Why (overview note)

Next

Next up: whether ETH holds $2,300 support and BitMine's next Monday update.

Raoul Pal T2 🟢 STANDBY

Macro research · Sui board member · liquidity, M2, everything-bubble
  • Pal said his book is #1 in its Amazon category six days before launch, and pointed to Prada's hand-drawn holiday campaign as what “the doomers are missing” about AI.
  • Real Vision: the AI trade “keeps drifting toward power and cooling” rather than chip names; nothing on Sui.
SIGNAL
STANDBY · 1/5
TICKERS / BRANDS

REAL VISION

Stance

Green. Commentary only; nothing on Sui.

Signals timelinenewest first · dashed = secondary / unverified

  • On Oct 28, Real Vision posted: winning trade against CoreWeave's balance sheet. Source: X
  • On Oct 28, Real Vision posted: trade drifting to power and cooling. Source: X
  • On Oct 28, Raoul Pal posted: Prada campaign and AI doomers. Source: X
  • On Oct 28, Raoul Pal posted: The Everything Code #1 in its category. Source: X
  • On Oct 27, Raoul Pal posted: The Everything Code out in one week. Source: X
  • On Oct 27, Real Vision posted: GOOGL bull and bear case. Source: X
  • On Oct 27, Real Vision posted: AI token prices down about 95%. Source: X
  • On Oct 27, Real Vision posted, “You cannot really argue with the bond market..” Source: X
  • On Oct 26, Raoul Pal promoted a Journeyman episode on his frameworks. Source: X
  • On Oct 26, Real Vision posted a segment in which Rory Johnston called $60 oil and $160 diesel “very plausible.” Source: X
  • On Oct 26, Real Vision posted “Why AI Is NOT the Next Dot-Com Bubble.” Source: X
  • On Oct 24, Real Vision posted that ETH/BTC is below its 20-week moving average. Source: X

Key quotes & findings

  • On Oct 21, Raoul Pal posted on X: “the more volatile the position, the less of it you hold.” Source
  • On Oct 20, Raoul Pal posted on X: “There isnt enough excess liquidity to fund the AI build out and push crypto at the same time... so it rotates.” Source
  • On Oct 19, Pal posted on X: “There are now more agents than humans on the internet in the space of 10 months. Wild.” Source
  • On Oct 19, Pal posted on X: “So the next four years really matter... it's the time to get set up while the economy still works the way we recognise.” Source
  • On Oct 16, A post on X said: “That is The Everything Code. Debasement sets the real hurdle rate for your money, and over the long run only two assets have cleared it... crypto and technology.” Source
  • On Oct 16, A post on X said: “I've never had all of it written down in one place before. Now it's in one book, out November 3rd.” Source
  • On Oct 15, A post on X said: “There might be a great trade in bonds right now... and I'm going to reject it because it doesnt match my hypothesis. Governments keep running more debt. That debt gets paid for by debasing the currency, and your savings lose ground to it every year. That's the core of The Everything Code and it makes my job simple... own the assets that outperform debasement. The easy trades are the long-term secular trends in technology and crypto.” Source
  • On Oct 15, A post on X said: “This week's Journeyman is a recording of the workshop I ran earlier today on Real Vision all about my trading philosophy.” Source
  • On Oct 28, Raoul Pal: 'The Everything Code is #1 in its category on Amazon today. 6 days until launch!' He also highlighted Prada's hand-drawn holiday campaign: 'This is what all the doomers are missing,' tied to his new essay on AI and people.
  • On Oct 28, Real Vision replied to a post about chips without power infrastructure: 'This is why the trade keeps drifting toward power and cooling rather than the chip names themselves.' It also featured a winning trade that bet against CoreWeave's balance sheet. Nothing on Sui (about $0.90 in tonight's snapshot).
  • No in-window use of “M2” or “everything bubble”. He says he has stopped giving public price targets.

Recent videos2 videos · transcript notes per video

  • On Oct 15, Raoul Pal The Journey Man posted the YouTube video “The Secret to Long-Term Investing with Raoul Pal | The Journey Man” (37:48). The video was not watched and its YouTube transcript was not retrievable, so these notes come from the YouTube description, its chapters and a third-party, unverified Kazuha AI summary. It is a Festival of Trading workshop.
    • The festival opener argues for shifting from short-term trading to long-term compounding in secular trends (tech and crypto), with volatility-based position sizing.
    • The chapters cover Tesla entries in a secular uptrend, Ethereum as a long-term opportunity, Sui as a higher-risk bet, and holding versus trading the cycle.
    • Kazuha, unverified, says ETH is about 2σ below its weekly trend, gives an illustrative (not forecast) $18K-by-Q2-2027 scenario, and says SUI is down about 80% from its high.
  • On Oct 15, When Shift Happens posted the YouTube video “Raoul Pal: How to Get Rich in Crypto Before AI Changes Everything | E190” (1:50:15). The video was not watched and its transcript was not accessible, so these notes come from the YouTube description, its chapters and a third-party, unverified PJFP.com summary.
    • The video description says there are about four years to build wealth before AI changes how the economy works, that Pal has made only two trades this year, and that his SUI bet is still underwater.
    • PJFP, unverified, says BTC is 2σ oversold against gold and the Nasdaq, which favors crypto over tech now, with a super cycle to about 2030 including 50% drawdowns.
    • PJFP, unverified, says Pal's average SUI entry is about $1.70, that disclosing his 70% SUI sizing was a mistake, and that he praised SOL's execution.

What to watch next

  • Pal's book The Everything Code is released on Nov 3.
  • Still open: any first-hand remarks from Pal on his SUI position.

All sources20 links · open in a new tab · dashed = secondary / unverified

Overview quick notes
  • On Oct 28, Raoul Pal: 'The Everything Code is #1 in its category on Amazon today. 6 days until launch!' He also highlighted Prada's hand-drawn holiday campaign: 'This is what all the doomers are missing,' tied to his new essay on AI and people.
  • On Oct 28, Real Vision replied to a post about chips without power infrastructure: 'This is why the trade keeps drifting toward power and cooling rather than the chip names themselves.' It also featured a winning trade that bet against CoreWeave's balance sheet. Nothing on Sui (about $0.90 in tonight's snapshot).

Why (overview note)

The Sui line is tiny; the 'power over chips' view is a mild caution for NVDA.

Next

Pal book Nov 3 · Drinks with Raoul Nov 2

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